Welcome to E3G’s COP27 live tracker, providing the latest news from Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. Join us for the latest updates and analysis of the climate negotiations by our experts.
Week 2:
Sunday 20th November
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 14. As #COP27 ends, #gas, though hotly debated & pushed by over 600 #FossilFuel lobbys’ reps, hasn’t made it onto COP’s final agenda. No wonder, as #gasfacts show: peak demand is in sight, investments stall w only 2FiDs in 2022 & #CleanEnergy takes over as the growth market. pic.twitter.com/asxmlS9PJ4
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 20, 2022
🙏 POLITICAL WILL DELIVERS BIG STEP FORWARDS WITH LOSS AND DAMAGE FUND AT COP27
🌍 Countries agreed to a deal at COP27, that offers a firm step forward with a historic loss and damage fund for responding to rising climate impacts, renewable energy singled out as the route to addressing the energy crisis, and strong calls to reform international finance institutions to unlock more finance and fiscal space for climate action along the lines of Barbadian PM Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative.
📏 But inches forward leave little assurance on the acceleration needed to keep temperature rise below 1.5C. Tensions over ending the use of fossil fuels rose to the surface at COP27 but are left to the next years to fully address.
👨👩👧👦 E3G ANALYSIS: Leaders and ministers were tasked to come to Sharm el Sheikh ready to step up on responding to climate impacts and accelerating emissions cuts, amidst a multitude of compounding crises. The deal they agreed acknowledges the urgency of climate action for addressing the linked challenges of food and energy security but has left a long way to go to get on a path to climate safety. Political will delivered a big step forward on addressing the impacts of climate change with the agreed Loss and Damage fund. But the small decisions secured on accelerating emissions cuts showed that politics is not yet grappling with the action needed to cut emissions for a climate safe pathway. On a positive note, the new political direction from leaders like Mia Mottley of Barbados and Emmanuel Macron of France, for transforming our finance institutions to better serve climate and linked goals, is clearly gaining traction and was solidified in the negotiated decisions.
🏚 Loss and Damage: Climate impacts were the central thread at COP27, with a huge change in politics from last year, and remarkable diplomatic efforts in the last weeks. An historic step forward was taken by governments tonight: for the first time, a Loss and Damage fund and financial arrangements were established. The outcome also highlights the crucial role of MDBs and debt service suspension clauses, which will be key to ensure new, additional, predictable and adequate finance for Loss and Damage. The fight is not over: details on who will contribute to the fund or on the accessibility to the financial arrangements will have to be negotiated in the upcoming years. But we can finally say Loss and Damage won fair recognition at COP27 – and that deserves being celebrated.
💵 Finance: Building on the mood of the G20 and the momentum around the Bridgetown Initiative, the world recognised the need for transformation of the financial system in order to finance the transition and resilience needs of developing countries. However, there was little new money on the table. Global climate finance for 2019-20 was noted as currently only 31-32% of the annual investment required, and Parties requested Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) action a substantial list of reforms. The role of the private sector in financial system reform was noted, along with the importance of private sector accountability for net zero pledges and delivery.
☀️⚡️Mitigation & Energy: Despite a last-minute push from the High Ambition Coalition to strengthen the coal phase down text to expand to all fossil fuels, the final COP27 outcome represents a disappointing standstill from Glasgow. The key language on accelerating efforts on coal phase down and fossil subsidy phase out are a cut and paste of commitments in the Glasgow Climate Pact. Renewable energy was positively mentioned, including the USD 4 trillion pa investment required by 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Overall this represents an incremental advance on prior COP texts (renewable energy was last mentioned at COP21), and, together with the reference to just energy transition partnerships as a means to deliver deep and sustained GHG reductions, signals the clear direction of travel towards clean energy in response to both the energy and climate crises. However there were missed opportunities to set targets for renewable energy or energy efficiency, state a peak demand target, encourage further demand-side measures or highlight energy access needs, particularly in Africa.
🏗 Adaptation: The science is clear – every fraction of a degree will push the limits of adaptation. COP27, being held in the most vulnerable continent to global warming, had the opportunity to raise political attention and push for adaptation action. The request for a report on the commitment to double adaptation finance – with space for developing countries to respond to that report – is a welcome boost of confidence around meeting that goal as well as significant contributions to the adaptation fund. However, the final deal does not reflect the urgency needed to support adaptation efforts worldwide, but in particular in the most vulnerable regions.
Saturday 19th November
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 13. Gas-based urea accounts for 60% of global fertiliser use, a growth of 35% since 1990. 🇧🇷Brazil, 2nd largest exporter of grain, is the largest importer of fertilizers.
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 19, 2022
As urea prices spike, the future of Brazil’s agri sector and global food security is at risk. #gasfacts pic.twitter.com/qClT6RtA3M
Listen to E3G and WRI experts share insights on the negotiating text from the COP27 Presidency on loss and damage alongside new negotiating text on the Mitigation Work Program:
#COP27 Twitter space starting in 15!
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 19, 2022
E3G and @WRIClimate experts will share insights on the the negotiating text from the @COP27P Presidency on #LossAndDamage alongside new negotiating text on the #Mitigation Work Program.
Set a reminder or tune in 👇https://t.co/fON18nQIHP
Friday 18th November
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 12. #OilandGas investments have been on a consistent ↘️ trend since mid-2010s, and, though current prices may lead to acceleration of already planned investments to reap #windfalls, declining #gas demand is unlikely to entice investors to reverse this trend. #COP27 #gasfacts pic.twitter.com/kroOmUu4N6
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 18, 2022
Listen to E3G’s experts review the state of play in the negotiations and what to look for in the remaining day(s) of COP27:
COP27 cover text press conference – live now. https://t.co/AbTIv3qH6m
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 18, 2022
🌅 Overnight, the Egyptian Presidency released a new draft text on the “cover decision.”
👨👩👧👦 Work continues on the five crunch issues that the presidency has asked pairs of ministers to help him resolve: loss and damage, the mitigation work programme, the global goal on adaptation, climate finance issues, and Article 6 of Paris.
👇 Here’s E3G’s take on the state of play and the work that remains to be done to get the outcomes we need in Sharm El-Sheikh.
👨💼 Alden Meyer, commenting on the state of play:
“Progress is uneven as the negotiations move towards a conclusion, but the strong response to the climate emergency that the world needs and expects from ministers here in Sharm El-Sheikh can still be achieved. The key to success lies in reaching resolution on the provision of funding for vulnerable countries who are suffering intensifying losses and damages from climate impacts through no fault of their own. If agreement can be reached on this issue, it will spur more ambitious outcomes on keeping 1.5C alive, reforming the global financial system to be consistent with Paris, and other issues. Everything is to play for over the next 24 to 48 hours.”
👩💼 Ines Benomar, commenting on Loss and Damage:
“With less than 24 official hours to go, the EU’s offer has opened more space for a deal on loss and damage. The key questions remain: whether a fund will be agreed here or later, whether funding arrangements target particularly or most vulnerable countries, and whether to expand the sources of funding. The next few hours are critical – we cannot leave Sharm without a loss and damage outcome.”
👩💻 Camilla Fenning, commenting on fossil fuels:
“The current text encourages efforts to phase down unabated coal, which is positive, but misses opportunities to press for phase down of all fossil fuels; to commit to a 2025 peaking date; or set ambitious renewable energy and energy efficiency goals (such as IEA call for at least 60% share of renewables in electricity mix, or doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements in line with net zero by 2050). New language on Just Transition shows that countries are increasingly focussing on the “how” of coal phase down, but this needs to be bolstered by stronger political commitment on overall fossil phase down.”
👩🏫 Annisa Sekaringtias added on clean energy access:
“Especially being an African COP, the current text fails to recognise the remaining need to provide electricity to over 750 million people that still have no access – 75% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Affordable, clean electricity could provide at least 60% of the world’s total electricity supply by 2030, decarbonize 90% of the power sector by 2050, and provide the basis of clean growth and development. International financial institutions need to step up to support the accelerated deployment of clean energy access solutions.”
Thursday 17th November
🇪🇺 EU Executive Vice President Timmermans made a new proposal on the plenary floor: a package outcome presented as a resolution to the “two sides of the same coin” on loss and damage and mitigation ambition for 1.5 degrees.
💶 The proposal included a decision to create a fund for responding to loss and damage (subject to some conditions on looking at the supporter base and innovative sources of funds including getting more from the MDBs), along with a push on strengthening efforts to keep warming to 1.5C and accelerating phase down of coal.
🏃 Quick reactions in the plenary hall showed the need to dive into the details, but this is a big step forward from the EU. Negotiations recommence in the morning with a long night of country group coordination likely.
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 11. The global #energy experts @IEA estimate that even in a scenario without ambitious climate policy, #gas demand would peak by 2030. And it could be as early as this year, should countries act fast on #climate. #gasfacts #COP27 pic.twitter.com/MLPtmh1VRD
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 17, 2022
📜 The second non-paper of elements – the document prepared by the Egyptian Presidency that paves the way for a final ‘cover text decision’ at COP27 is a sprawling and confusing 20 page document. It’s not a clear, sharp and defined vision from the Presidency, but more of a collation of many of the various views that Parties have raised over the past fortnight.
What next?
🔜 Text incoming: Consultations on the document are going on right now, and we expect to see a first draft text soon after. What the Presidency chooses to put in this first draft will be the defining moment of COP27 so far. The non-paper has elements which, if combined and strengthened, could be the basis of an ambitious final outcome. It’s highly likely that the draft text is significantly reduced in size, so there are major questions about whether such a vision can survive the cull.
🃏 The Presidency is holding its cards close to its chest, so it’s anyone’s guess what vision they’ll go for. The question on their mind will be whether their proposal can garner a critical mass of support to back it. But with negotiations on loss and damage finance stuck, there’s no clear alliance of developed and developing countries to come together to form a ‘high ambition coalition’ that can push a strong package over the line.
🕰 And don’t forget that other negotiations on the agenda – on the mitigation work programme, the new collective quantified goal, the global goal on adaptation, etc. – are still being driven by Ministerial level consultations. The Presidency said to expect to hear more updates around lunchtime today – but so far, it’s been radio silence. One clear lesson from past COPs is that transparency is critical to maintain trust. For now, though, negotiators will just have to wait and see.
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Solutions Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
We are reaching the final sprint of #COP27 with #SolutionsDay. All eyes are on the various threads of the negotiations converging into a draft cover text.
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 17, 2022
Follow latest developments on 1.5°C, phasing down #FossilFuels & #Bridgetown in our live tracker 👇https://t.co/3l3YBDiZEI
Listen to E3G Policy Advisor Tom Evans, E3G Senior Associate Cat Abreu, and Matt Adam Williams from ECIU assess the COP27 draft cover text that dropped early this morning:
Happening now ⬇️ A review of the #COP27 cover text with @TomEvansClimate @mattadamw and @catabreu_ _ moderated by @ruchispatel https://t.co/tTxWCq9b4b
— UNCS News (@UNClimateSummit) November 17, 2022
Wednesday 16th November
🔥 Fossil fuels under fire – Momentum is building from India, the EU, AOSIS and civil society voices for COP27 to build on the G20 language in Bali and the Glasgow Climate Pact to include a reference to the phase down of all fossil fuels. All eyes will be on the first draft cover text for whether this rising pressure translates into a potential outcome.
🏆 Win for the Santiago Network: In terms of ongoing Loss and Damage negotiations, Parties today agreed on the draft decision text, where the mechanisms to operationalise the *Santiago Network for Loss and Damage* have been established.
💸 Money matters: On the financing arrangements for L&D: discussions continued today at the Ministerial level, with Chilean Minister Rojas and German State Secretary Morgan as co-facilitators. With little time left, every minute will count to reach an agreement at COP27. So far, there’s still a gap between those who want a facility established this week, and those who want an agreement on a process – but winds are changing: Canada and New Zealand showed a bit more openness on the matter.
💤 Snooze and lose: With a potential cover text imminent, the next few hours are critical. Expectations are high for a L&D outcome at COP27, and as many expected, it’s shaping up to be the keystone around which progress on all other negotiations depends. One thing is clear: no one wants to leave COP27 empty handed.
⏮ Catch up on the recording of today’s press briefing, COP27 endgame: where do we stand after the G20 Leaders’ Summit? here.
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 10. If developed, new gas production in Africa increasingly risks being stranded. Development & operation of oil & gas projects costs 15-20% above global average & is 70-80% more carbon-intensive. Competition from large #LNG exporters is huge as global demand peaks #gasfacts pic.twitter.com/3ySGovYxSX
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 16, 2022
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Biodiversity Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
#Biodiversity Day at #COP27
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 16, 2022
Climate and #biodiversity are interdependent and require urgent action. E3G’s @C_BritoCecilio shares more on the overarching impact of climate #TippingPoints across nature and geopolitics 👇https://t.co/i0t0VEMius pic.twitter.com/3Jvj1Sgo0A
What does the G20 outcome mean for COP27?
👨💼 Nick Mabey, E3G Co-CEO said:
“Despite high geopolitical tensions driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the G20 leaders have sent an unexpectedly strong message on the need to accelerate collective action to tackle the energy, food, economic and climate crises. Leaders must now instruct their negotiators at COP27 to follow up these fine words with concrete outcomes”
🌏 Showing the fight for 1.5C does reflect global consensus, the G20 communique referred to the Glasgow Climate Pact’s calls to accelerate efforts to keep it within reach. The G20 called for countries to continue updating their NDCs. While the language is weaker than last year (an invitation to countries to enhance ambition rather than commitment to do so ‘where required’), it still reinforces the global direction of travel. The declaration calls for progress on loss and damage at COP – interestingly, in reference to finance, the call for enhancing innovative financing mechanisms could be a way to increase blocker countries’ comfort on new loss and damage funding arrangements.
👩💼 Alex Scott, Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics expert at E3G said:
“This G20 outcome shows that the political sentiment from the COP27 world leaders’ summit – recognising the gaps to a safer climate pathway and calling for acceleration and finance system transformation to deliver it – reflects the global consensus and direction of travel. It shows political will to do more on climate and food security in particular, including raising the ambition and implementation of climate plans.
“But stating that will is not enough – the G20 as major emitters and economically advantaged need to step up to build on this outcome at COP27. This means a deal of financing loss and damage and clarity on how doubling adaptation finance will be achieved, concrete plans for accelerating emissions reductions by agreeing global action to phase out all fossil fuels and setting new political direction on the kinds of finance system transformation needed to deliver both climate and development goals.”
☀️🌬️ G20 energy outcomes reflect the pressure of the global energy security crisis and the need to move with greater urgency towards more secure, resilient and clean energy solutions. It recognises the importance of accelerating efforts towards universal energy access, resilient supply chains, just transition, and of scaling up finance required to deliver this change.
🏭 The Indonesians, despite some significant pressure, leant into the language on coal phase down. The communique holds the line on the Glasgow Climate Pact language, including a commitment to “Accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power” and medium-term phase down of inefficient fuel subsidies.
👩 Camilla Fenning, Fossil Fuel transition expert at E3G said:
“It’s good that the Indonesians, fresh from yesterday’s announcement of a $20 bn deal for their Just Energy Transition Partnership, ensured the Glasgow Climate Pact commitments on coal phase down were reiterated, calling for “accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power” and referencing phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. The onus is on COP27 now to recommit on coal phase down too.”
💵 The G20 has added to calls for financial system reform to address global crises including climate change, which have also been evident at COP27. It has agreed some useful actions, e.g. a timeline for MDB Capital Adequacy reforms and further steps on debt relief. A lack of consensus on key reform issues, such as greening international financial regulation, is evident and makes the final text overly cautious in some areas.
👩🦰 Kate Levick, Associate Director for Sustainable Finance at E3G said:
“We welcome G20’s statements on financial system architecture, in particular around MDB reforms and sovereign debt. Regulatory reforms agreed under the G20 SF Roadmap are also important for financial system reform that will support a sustainable climate transition for all countries, and it is concerning to see so much emphasis on these being ‘voluntary’ and ‘flexible’.”
Tuesday 15th November
☀️ Energy Day saw the release of the IEA’s Special Report on Coal in Net Zero Transitions, which reaffirms there is no room for new coal fired power stations if we are to reach the 1.5°C goal. E3G analysis of the latest data confirms the majority of the world is fast converging on the IEA’s first key milestone of no new coal power plants moving into construction. All regions apart from China and Central Asia are approaching this milestone. Europe is the first to reach it already. Read more here.
🌺 Bali talk: As leaders gather for the first day of the G20 Leaders’ Summit, initial drips of gossip from Bali are spreading among climate watchers in Sharm El Sheikh. Ministers from G20 countries will be well aware that the signals sent by their leaders in the final declaration — expected to land tomorrow morning — will dictate their negotiating positions in the final stages of COP27.
What to look out for from the G20
1️⃣ 1.5C: The Rome declaration last year had robust language on ‘keeping 1.5C within reach’. At the G20 climate ministerial this year language on 1.5C became too controversial, collapsing hopes of a communique. Will we see a repeat at the Leaders’ summit?
2️⃣ NDCs: COP26 called for all countries to revisit and strengthen their 2030 NDCs as necessary to align with the Paris temperature goal. Will G20 leaders reaffirm this pledge to help keep 1.5C alive?
3️⃣ Fossil Fuels: India threw a curveball last Saturday with their call for COP27 to commit all countries to phase down fossil fuels. Today, EU Commission Vice President Timmermans supported this, provided it doesn’t “diminish” the agreement on phasing down coal at COP26 (famously watered down at the 11th hour by India and China). A year later, will the G20 agree to this proposal and pave the way for COP27 to show fossil fuels the door?
📖 Meanwhile in Egypt the hard work of COP talks continues. All the corridor chat has been about a Presidency paper featuring ‘possible elements’ of a cover text published late last night. The long list of ideas could be the ingredients for an eventual cover text. In Presidency-led discussions, many Parties were clear: the clock is ticking, and we need to see real draft text, not a ‘non-paper’ of vague bullet points — and soon. Keep an eye out for whether this lands overnight — as recommended during consultations in Sharm el Sheikh by Archie Young, the UK chief negotiator who delivered the Glasgow Climate Pact, and someone who knows a thing or two about sealing the deal when it comes to cover texts.
Belinda Schäpe shares highlights and her analysis of President Xi Jinping’s speech to the G20:
🇨🇳Xi Jinping stressed support for developing countries in his speech to the #G20
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 15, 2022
Here are the highlights & a few thoughts, especially on the global #energy, #food and #climate crises pic.twitter.com/cH73OUzubb
Chris Littlecott summarises the global progress towards the no new coal milestone:
This morning, the @IEA Special Report on Coal in Net Zero Transitions: Strategies for rapid, secure and people-centred change reaffirmed that *“Reducing coal power sector emissions in line with the 1.5-degree goal means no new development of unabated coal-fired power plants”*
— Chris Littlecott (@chrislittlecott) November 15, 2022
1/
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 9. Large share of African #gas export infra is owned by foreign #oilandgas, demanding favourable fiscal terms & high royalties while locking Africa out of profits. 🌍 owns 2/5 #LNG export infra (vs. 85% in domestic infra) but ends up shouldering investment risks. #gasfacts pic.twitter.com/Zn17QL7qfa
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 15, 2022
Oyku Senlen shares her analysis of Turkey’s updated NDC announcement:
🇹🇷 has announced its updated NDC during today’s High-Level Segment at #COP27. In summary, it includes: @e3g (1/6)
— Öykü Şenlen (@oykusenlen) November 15, 2022
👉41% reduction in GHG emissions from the BAU level (~1175 MtCO2e) by 2030
👉~500MtCO2e reduction in comparison to BAU in 2030
👉Peak emissions by 2038
Leo Roberts shares the key headlines from E3G’s analysis on the current state of the global landscape of planned new coal power projects:
Now live! Our @E3G analysis on the current state of progress towards the world’s last ever coal power station being built. #NoNewCoal took off last year at #COP26, and there’s been a lot of progress since then despite this year’s energy chaos. #COP27 🧵1/ https://t.co/9tGUQlDCdy
— Leo Roberts (@leonickroberts) November 15, 2022
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Energy Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
We’re following the latest #COP27 negotiations and announcements at #EnergyDay ⚡️
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 15, 2022
📩 Today’s newsletter unpacks the state of play for #climate finance, #LossAndDamage, adaptation and a cover text: https://t.co/8MkBLxJFmz
More in our live tracker: https://t.co/BfvlENyhgs
🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/saNM8eh6uF
Alex Scott follows the Climate and Development Ministerial Forward Plan event:
@AlokSharma_RDG #COP26 President welcomes all to the Climate and Development Ministerial Forward Plan event
— Alex Scott (@AlexScottLondon) November 15, 2022
Calls for rapid action
Welcomes Forward Plan pathway of actions prepared by independent experts supporting the event https://t.co/8g8xn4RLQ2 https://t.co/kMvq0UHBL6 pic.twitter.com/6P1QIEqA4s
Today is Energy day at COP27
🇮🇩 Indonesia is a big coal economy, producing over 60% of its electricity from coal, and still with new coal plants in development. So a ‘Just Energy Transition Partnership’ or ‘JETP’ for Indonesia, which accelerates a coal phase out pathway is a really positive step in its energy transition and progress towards its Net Zero target.
🇿🇦 Together with the recent publication of the South African JETP investment plan, and signals that a Vietnam JETP may be landed before Christmas, there is a growing sense that the JETPs have established a proof of concept. Endorsement of the South African JETP by key philanthropies working on coal-to-clean transition shows the concept can develop partnerships to work together to achieve real world progress.
💵 The Indonesian JETP includes a $10bn commitment from key donors, and some matched funding from specific investors is also encouraging. JETPs will only properly be a success if the political statements and investment plans actually deliver the transformational public and private financing required to pivot towards a clean energy system.
🏦 The discussions around MDB reform also need to ensure that financial flows are further accelerated to achieve the wider swathe of global energy transition required. This task was picked up at this morning’s Climate and Development Ministerial event where speakers noted the need to urgently work on increasing concessional and grant finance that’s easier and quicker to access, especially for the world’s most vulnerable countries. For more info, click here.
👩💼 Camilla Fenning, JETP expert at E3G said:
“The Indonesian JETP announcement is a significant milestone in the global energy transition. It shows large coal-producing and coal-reliant countries are turning away from coal and towards clean and more affordable energy systems.
“This announcement is proof that the JETP method of a country-led and donor-supported corralling of public and private finance commitments can work. The full proof of concept will be when the promised commitments on finance actually begin to flow.
“The specific commitments from named financial institutions in the Indonesia JETP are particularly welcome. This provides credibility and confidence in the overall package.”
Monday 14th November
Week 2 of COP27 has begun
🤝 Biden-Xi had their first bilateral meeting on the eve of the G20 Leaders’ Summit, and climate was on the agenda. The leaders took tentative steps towards re-engaging bilaterally on climate change, a step that could be important in creating political space for more ambitious outcomes at COP27.
🛩 Not quite lift-off: There is no official announcement that the ‘suspension of climate talks’ will be lifted. But both sides seem to have accepted that they should communicate through existing ‘working groups’ – one of them on climate, set up during COP26.
👩🏫 Belinda Schäpe, Researcher at E3G says:
“Restarting the US-China working group on climate is a strong signal for COP27. However, climate action by the two largest emitters needs to go beyond bilateral talks. Before its suspension, the working group delivered limited tangible outcomes. If both countries are honest about their climate commitments, they must step up actions at home and increase finance to support developing countries in their transition and adaptation to climate impacts.”
🌴 All eyes on Bali: The Biden-Xi bilateral didn’t see any firm commitments on climate, so it’ll be up to G20 leaders to agree – where G20 climate and energy ministers last month failed. At COP last Saturday, India pushed for a cover text to call on a ‘phase down of all fossil fuels’. With India’s G20 Presidency next year, expectations are rising about whether this will be pushed in Indonesia, building on language from the G20 and COP26 on the phase down of coal. A G20 outcome on fossil fuel phase down could set a baseline for cover text agreement at COP27.
☀️ Back in Sharm, the Egyptian Presidency has continued bilateral conversations with Parties today on the big-topic issue of the cover text. No indication yet has been given on when a draft text will emerge, but expect it soon. Sticky negotiations are continuing at pace too. An informal note summarising developments on loss and damage finance emerged shortly before consultations at 5pm (EET) today, while negotiators in the mitigation work programme have been given a room until midnight to resolve their differences (with the US even requesting some flipcharts to help the conversation along).
👀 Watch this morning’s press briefing with speakers Alden Meyer, Sony Kapoor, Friederike Roder and Serah Makka for an assessment of where we stand in the COP27 negotiations, and the impact of the G20 Leaders’ Summit -> watch the recording here.
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 8. Many oil and gas producing economies in #Africa hoped that gas exports would bring foreign $$$ inflow & budget revenue. In reality, the share of gas rent is rarely over 1% of GDP. Boosting gas production hasn’t resulted in better energy access or growth. #gasfacts #COP27 pic.twitter.com/5SL6yB2kuS
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 14, 2022
Belinda Schäpe and Byford Tsang on the Xi-Biden meeting readout:
Looks like #US🇺🇸-#China🇨🇳 working group on climate might get back to work after meeting between @POTUS & Xi Jinping
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 14, 2022
This would be a welcome sign & a strong signal to #COP27 BUT climate action by the two largest emitters needs to go beyond bilateral talks https://t.co/meljbuxDtw
🇨🇳🇺🇸Xi-Biden meeting readout from @WhiteHouse –
— Byford Tsang (@byfordt) November 14, 2022
‘The two leaders agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts on these and other issues’.
Waiting for the 🇨🇳 readout to see if this means the restart of the climate working grp
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Water and Gender Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
Week 2 of #COP27 kicks off in Sharm El Sheikh ⚽️ with Water & Gender Day
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 14, 2022
We’re closely following negotiations at this critical stage, including the geopolitical impact of the #G20 Leaders Summit this week in Bali. Follow along with E3G’s live COP tracker: https://t.co/3l3YBDiZEI
Week 1:
Saturday 12th November
🚜 Food and climate addressed: Against a backdrop of rising hunger and increasingly severe climate impacts, COP27 marks the first time that a COP Presidency has carved out space for tackling the intersection of food and climate.
🏎 FAST and furious: Launched this morning, the Egyptian Presidency’s Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation (FAST) Initiative aims to build and drive political will and multi-stakeholder coalitions towards a common goal: more efficient, resilient and inclusive agri-food systems, that respond to rising demand for food while rapidly driving down emissions from the sector.
👩🏫 Claire McConnell, Policy Advisor at E3G, said:
“Improving both the quality and quantity of climate finance to support smallholder farmers adapt to climate impacts is critical to decarbonising food systems while meeting demand. As the share of climate finance allocated to agriculture and land use continues to decrease, and only about 1.5% of climate finance currently reaches smallholder farmers, the path ahead is a steep one.”
🌱 In the weeds of agriculture negotiations, progress is also bumpy. Last night the Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture mandate expired. Both draft texts have passed to the second week, and the Egyptian Presidency now steps in to work on the text. However, ongoing divisions mean an agreement on the future mandate might not be reached. Against the backdrop of a global food security crisis, the timing could not be worse.
💰 Today was also Adaptation Day, and featured clear political will for scaling up adaptation finance that is high-quality (grants not loans, targeting effective locally-led projects) and speedily accessible. Announcements were sprinkled across events – notably, Germany announced €40m at the Africa Development Fund.
🕳 Yet announcements in the 10s of millions aren’t closing the gap fast enough. The COP26 outcome urging developed nations to (at least) double adaptation finance is being raised across multiple negotiating rooms – a strong outcome is needed.
📚 Cover text consultations led by the Presidency began today. Like the Glasgow Climate Pact last year, they are an opportunity to reflect on progress, make new commitments, launch processes and declare political statements. They send headline signals from COP to the world and are influential in setting the direction of travel for climate action.
⚖️ Shepherding a cover text will be a high-line tightrope walk for the Egyptians. Many Parties are calling for a strong, ambitious and extensive cover text – covering key issues on loss and damage, adaptation, mitigation and finance. A range of ideas are on the table: 1️⃣ a roadmap to deliver the commitment to double adaptation finance, 2️⃣ timelines and benchmarks for the COP26 commitments to phase down unabated coal power and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, 3️⃣ strong language to encourage the private sector and public finance institutions to improve efforts to align financial flows with the Paris Agreement (Article 2.1c), 4️⃣ references to the wider financial transformation needed including the Bridgetown Initiative, among many, many other ideas.
🤔 Pause for thought: The key question Egypt will be mulling over the weekend, as they prepare to publish a first draft of the text, isn’t just what goes in the text. It’s also critically about who will form the coalitions necessary to champion an ambitious package. As at every COP, leadership is needed to make these decisions – so it’s a good thing Ministers will be landing in Sharm El Sheikh next week.
Alex Scott follows the Champions Group Adaptation Finance event:
“With the title of Champions comes great responsibility”
— Alex Scott (@AlexScottLondon) November 12, 2022
“Adaptation gap report suggests we’re losing the battle to adapt to global warming… need to increase the quantity and quality of adaptation finance”
– @SelwinHart at #ChampionsGroup #AdaptationFinance event https://t.co/MQF3v0QBPr
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Adaptation and Agriculture Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
🌽 Adaptation and Agriculture Day at #COP27
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 12, 2022
Given the 🌎 urgency of adaptation, agriculture and food systems resilience, additional and high-quality finance is essential to move commitments forward.
More on how COP27 can deliver on food for the future 👇https://t.co/lMyu631lwb
Friday 11th November
🛬 Biden put on the charm in Sharm today, and took full advantage of the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act to tout American leadership on climate change, calling on others to increase ambition at home. The IRA, along with the bipartisan infrastructure bill and CHIPS Act, represent a massive investment in clean energy and climate solutions to reduce the cost of clean tech worldwide. It also gets the US a substantial part of the way towards its pledge of a 50-52% reduction in emissions by 2030 (modelling says the IRA brings reductions to 40%, Biden still has to rely on ambitious state action and regulations from the executive branch to meet the 2030 NDC). The domestic methane initiatives announced by President Biden are also significant.
🆕 So what’s new? Biden announced a doubling of the contribution to the Adaptation Fund to $100m over 2 years, and over $150m for several adaptation and resilience initiatives aimed at Africa, including the African Adaptation Initiative in partnership with Egypt. He highlighted a US-Germany-EU initiative to invest $500m that is projected to stimulate $10bn in private sector investment in clean energy projects in Egypt and allow retirement of 5GW of inefficient natural gas generation. He also singled out over $2.3bn invested in 2022 in developing country mitigation and resilience projects by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, support from the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, and U.S. Export-Import Bank for investment in clean energy projects abroad by US companies.
🗼 We’ll always have Paris: The US will be the first national government to require federal suppliers to publicly disclose their emissions and set Paris-aligned emissions reductions targets. This is major as the federal government is one of the largest purchasers of goods and services – $630bn in spending.
👀 Eyes on the prize: All of these activities can be done with funding already authorised by the US Congress. All eyes will be on Washington in mid-December when Congress must pass bills to keep the government running through the rest of the fiscal year, ending next September.
🏫 Over to Congress: How will Congress act on President Biden’s request for $11.4bn in financial support for developing country mitigation and adaptation activities? Will the White House and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate stand up to Republican efforts to block such a substantial increase in international climate finance? Biden committed to fight, but Congress holds the purse strings.
💰 What about financial support for developing countries experiencing ever-more-devastating climate impacts? Biden noted some useful but limited initiatives — the G7 Global Shield proposal and strengthening of early warning systems. But he did not acknowledge that the assistance currently available to countries experiencing these losses is woefully inadequate (for Pakistan, less than 1% to date of the $30-40 billion projected losses from recent flooding), much less commit the US to provide its fair share of funding for addressing loss and damage — a notable omission.
👨💼 Alden Meyer, Senior Associate at E3G, said:
“President Biden deserves credit for coming to Sharm el-Sheikh and calling for increased climate ambition, and he is entitled to take a victory lap for delivering the most ambitious climate and clean energy legislation in US history. But the world needs more from the US, especially its leadership on transforming the global financial system to meet the interrelated, growing challenges of devastating climate impacts, energy and food insecurity and price inflation, and unsustainable levels of debt in developing countries.”
Maria Pastukhova on aims to cut the fossil fuel industry’s methane emissions & boost energy security:
🇺🇸,🇪🇺,🇳🇴,🇨🇦,🇯🇵, 🇸🇬, 🇬🇧, announced today at #COP27, aims to cut #fossilfuel industry’s #methane emissions & boost #energysecurity.
— Maria Pastukhova (@Energy_in_Asia) November 11, 2022
How big a step is it, what are the gaps remaining and what does it mean for #energytransition?
A🧵1/5 https://t.co/FsSEOXrULi
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 5. Before 2021-22 #EnergyCrisis, some Asian emerging economies were betting on gas as a “transition fuel”, increasing their gas use mostly in the #electricity sector. Heavily subsidized prices for imported #LNG have become a fiscal burden & fuel #inflation. #gasfacts #COP27 pic.twitter.com/jeD0HEs2uZ
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 11, 2022
Belinda Schäpe on China publishing its 2022 UNFCCC Progress Report on the Implementation of China’s Nationally Determined Contributions:
#China🇨🇳 published its 2022 #UNFCCC Progress Report on the Implementation of China’s Nationally Determined Contributions #NDC
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 11, 2022
No new targets but summary of 🇨🇳 climate progress over the last year https://t.co/xPt8VJdvhz
⏱ Clock ticking: Negotiations ran late into the night on Thursday. With Parties still expressing concerns and divergence on many issues, time is running out to agree on decision texts before the closing of the technical discussion by the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies this week.
💵 Loss and damage conversations continued, with more countries setting out their expectations for COP27. At the previous session, developing countries called for agreement on a L&D finance facility at COP27.
🌍 Yesterday many developed countries responded. There was agreement on acknowledging L&D finance gaps, and urgent need to act, but different views on how finance should be mobilised. The likes of the EU, UK and Australia pointed to some of the efforts taking place outside the UNFCCC, with the US picking up on the idea (raised by the Maldives) of a ‘mosaic of solutions’ in and beyond the UNFCCC that must inform the final outcome. New Zealand and Canada stood out, with slightly more flexible positions than their developed country counterparts. They could become the vanguard for bridging the divide. But concern remains that developed countries are more focused on outcomes for process * rather than *substance. Today’s discussion will dive into the details about timelines, the COP27 outcome and roadmap for the Glasgow Dialogue.
✍️ First discussions on the draft text for the mitigation work programme have begun. There’s enthusiasm to streamline the sprawling, bracketed 9-page text. But fundamental differences remain on how long it will last, whether it will focus on accelerating sectoral decarbonisation and how it could lead to stronger political decisions at COPs – like the promises to phase-down coal seen in the Glasgow Climate Pact. The Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) group (including China and India) envisage a more minimalist outcome, a stark comparison to the view of the US, EU, AOSIS, least developed countries and others who want a robust 10-year programme to deliver IPCC pathways for 1.5°C. While unlikely this gets resolved this week, it’s critical that options are refined to pass to ministers next week.
📄 The big political debate over the cover text begins today, ahead of the first Presidency consultations on Saturday. The cover text is a chance to send strong political signals from COP27. Expect countries to target elements including calls for new NDCs, stronger processes on doubling adaptation finance, aligning finance with the Paris Agreement, and giving impetus to global finance and food systems reform. The laundry list of wishes could be long; the task for Egypt will be to drive a consensus package over the line in just 7 days’ time.
Thursday 10th November
🇮🇩 Biden and Xi: The White House today confirmed that the US and China will meet on 14 November on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. They will discuss how to “responsibly manage competition, and work together where our interests align, especially on transnational challenges that affect the international community,” indicating they may discuss climate change. However, climate envoy Xie Zhenhua made clear that for China, the door remains shut on climate talks after the visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, and it would be on the US to come knocking.
👩💼 Alexandra Hackbarth, E3G Senior Policy Advisor on geopolitics and foreign policy, said:
“China has made clear that opportunity for bilateral climate talks is closed. Cooperation is one way to accelerate climate action, but it isn’t the only way, nor is it even potentially the most effective way. The Biden-Xi meeting is the first opportunity for leaders to demonstrate what constructive climate competition could look like, such as competition in clean tech and financial support for Global South countries looking to adapt and transition to clean energy sources.”
🇨🇳 China signals openness on Loss and Damage. Xie Zhenhua said China supports the position of developing countries on L&D, and would be willing to contribute to a mechanism for compensating poorer countries on L&D. However, he also made clear that China would not be obliged to contribute financially under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Instead, it would continue making contributions through south-south cooperation. While China has stepped up support in this area, its financial contribution to south-south cooperation on climate change accumulates to only around $160 million over the last decade.
🗺️ Geopolitics entering climate negotiations: Xie Zhenhua mentioned Taiwan and the One China principle in China’s national statement to the COP27 plenary, the first time the issue was brought up in the context of climate policy. The reference is a demonstration of the dominance of national security, a recurring theme of the 20th Party Congress that concluded last month, in all aspects of Chinese policymaking.
📖 Read E3G’s analysis of China’s climate diplomacy, from Party Congress to COP27, and what constructive climate competition should look like in the US here.
🚨Breaking🚨@POTUS will meet Xi Jinping at #G20 to “discuss efforts to maintain & deepen lines of communication between 🇺🇸&🇨🇳, responsibly manage competition & work together where our interests align, especially on transnational challenges that affect international community”
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 10, 2022
Innovative MDB finance for adaptation public event
E3G, FCDO and EIB hosted a public event at the COP27 MDB Pavilion on innovative MDB financing for adaptation. Speakers discussed both how the mainstreaming of sustainable cooling and the rollout of climate-adapted agriculture are just two ways of making MDBs forces for adaptation in every corner of our world
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 4. #Japan boosted #LNG use for power generation post-Fukushima. It keeps buying LNG at record prices ($23.7/Mbtu in Oct 22) & already spent 1.1% of its GDP on #gas in 2022. 🇯🇵‘s industrial competitiveness now depends on how quickly it can cut its gas demand. #gasfacts #COP27 pic.twitter.com/lHLPWk8mXc
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 10, 2022
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Science Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
🗓️ Science Day at #COP27
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 10, 2022
🌡️ @climateactiontr released their Warming Projections Global Update. LNG is eating away at the #CarbonBudget. With current policies leading to 2.7˚C, countries at #COP27 must agree on new ways to lower emissions.
E3G reacts 👇🧵https://t.co/3l3YBDiZEI
📢 Just out today (10:00 EET) is Climate Action Tracker’s Warming Projections Global Update for COP27, providing a sobering reminder of the planet’s future if countries fail to raise commitments and utilise finance to bring emissions down in the near term.
🔥 LNG impact: The update reveals that the CO2 emissions from all the under-construction, approved and proposed Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production projects 2021-2050 could use up around 10% of the remaining global carbon budget to keep to 1.5˚C warming by mid-century.
💥 In 2030, oversupply of LNG could reach 500 megatonnes of LNG, equivalent to almost five times the EU’s 2021 Russian gas imports, and double total global Russian exports. This oversupply of fossil gas could lead to excess emissions of at just under two gigatonnes of CO2 a year in 2030, well above emission levels consistent with the IEA Net Zero by 2050 scenario (2022).
👩🏫 Lisa Fischer, Programme Lead at E3G said:
“This is not only dangerous for the climate but economically reckless. Renewables are cheaper, and major importers such as Europe are reducing their gas consumption much faster, the EU intending a 50% cut by 2030. A lot of this infrastructure might produce, but will struggle to sell.”
🌡Off track: The report also shows that if all 2030 national targets are met, warming in 2100 would still reach 2.4˚C, the same as CAT’s projection at COP26. Long-term net zero commitments would take it to 1.8˚C. But the current policies pathway – a reflection of action on the ground – remains at a soaring 2.7˚C. Few governments so far have increased their 2030 targets, made new net zero commitments nor substantiated them.
🧑🏫 Tom Evans, Policy Advisor at E3G said:
“For all the progress seen in accelerating renewables rollout and the falling costs of low carbon solutions like electric cars, action remains too slow. Limiting warming to 1.5˚C is slipping out of reach. It’s vital that countries at COP27 agree on new ways to get emissions down in the near-term. A commitment at COP27 for new 2030 climate targets from the G20 major emitters, one that actually shifts the dial on the temperature projection, is key – especially from those that haven’t yet raised their ambition.
He added: “But even more urgently, governments must take decisive steps to unlock the critical ingredient for delivering these targets: finance. Real solutions exist: reforming the MDBs, a new mitigation trust fund at the IMF, and changes to debt rules could unlock trillions for climate investments in developing countries. COP27 must push these agendas onto the desks of leaders at the G7, G20, World Bank, IMF, and across the developing world in 2023.”
Wednesday 9th November
Finance Day Outcomes
💸 Today, Finance Day featured talk of big financial reform…without much more money on the table. The 10 most important Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) published their joint statement, without much progress to show. The update stated all MDBs are well on their way to align their financial flows with the Paris Agreement, but failed to explain what being “on track” means – or include any forward plan for climate finance. Crucially there was no mention of phasing out fossil fuel financing, or any referencing to alignment with 1.5C.
👏 Transition plans take the stage: A member of the Bundesbank Executive Board today joined the UN HLEG and UK’s Transition Plan Taskforce call to develop transition plans as a tool to mobilise capital and address greenwashing. A report from LSE released today also confirmed the key role of transition plans as a tool for central banks to manage climate risks.
🏃♀️ The Net Zero Banking Alliance published its first progress report since its launch in April 2021 – with just over half of NZBA member banks having set intermediate 2030 decarbonisation targets. The NZBA called on governments and regulators to support the voluntary alliance by “helping deliver an orderly and ‘whole economy’ transition to net zero.”
📕 The International Platform on Sustainable Finance announced its Transition Finance Report produced jointly by the EU, Japan and Switzerland – this lays down the key principles for Paris-aligned transition finance and transition planning.
💪 Robust regulation: After several high-profile speeches yesterday on closing the accountability gap, there is growing recognition of the need to create a robust regulatory and policy environment around corporate net zero transition plans.
🌎 International alignment on standards was also on the agenda, with CDP announcing a formal incorporation of ISSB standards around corporate net zero plans and pledges.
🐝 Buzz about Bloomberg’s new Net Zero Open Data platform was abundant. This platform will provide free and transparent tracking of corporate climate data across the world. It remains to be seen whether this will provide visibility on green financial flows – the true test for net zero progress.
🗣 Sharma advocates: Following Songwe/Stern’s call yesterday for systemic global financial reform, Alok Sharma stated at the UK’s ‘One Year on from COP26’ event this morning that ‘Without finance, none of what needs to happen will happen’, and endorsed a new Global Bretton Woods moment for Climate.
⤵️ But UK falls short: Disappointingly, the UK has failed to demonstrate progress on its commitment at COP26 to deliver a world-leading Net Zero Aligned Financial Centre. We’d hope that the new Prime Minister will pick this up as a priority and recognise business calls to deliver a Net Zero Investment Plan in the UK’s upcoming Green Finance Strategy. In his own words at COP26, ‘this is the right thing to do’
🦷 Offsets, offsets, offsets: Kerry’s Energy Transition Accelerator has already been hit with criticism due to well-worn arguments about credibility, integrity and additionality. Initiatives like the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative are taking their first steps but have yet to grow teeth.
👩🏫 Heather McKay, E3G Policy Advisor, said:
“Finance day has shone a spotlight on the need to ensure credibility, and alignment, of global net zero financial standards. However, the finance community is waking up to the role that regulation must play in fighting greenwash and ensuring action by non-state actors. We hope that the conversation moves swiftly from ‘transition finance’ to actually, in real terms, financing the transition across the world. To do so, we urgently need ambition to ramp up from aligning standards to delivering finance now.”
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 3. 🇵🇱Poland planned to move from coal to #gas in power & buildings. Gas supply up 70% in last 10ys.
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 9, 2022
Now, @SasinJacek said “We do not want to end up like Germany” as they Arrow Up with solid fill #renewables targets. #HeatPump install up 96% in H1 2022. #gasfacts @janrosenow pic.twitter.com/1oLMF6rmvM
Belinda Schäpe tracks updates on what China is saying & doing at COP27 over the course of the two weeks:
🚨#China🇨🇳 at @COP27🚨
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 9, 2022
Follow this thread for all updates on what China is saying & doing in Sharm over the course of the two weeks by our @e3g China team with @byfordt & @alexhackbarth 🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/pAANXqciMV
Ciarán Humphreys on the European Commission’s announcement on the fiscal rules:
Quick 🧵 with immediate reactions to @EU_Commission’s announcement on the fiscal rules.
— Ciarán Humphreys (@CJ_Humphreys) November 9, 2022
Overall, proposal is as expected – a switch to medium term time horizon and country specific debt reduction pathways – for details check @forfinancewatch @DezernatZ @DelorsBerlin colleagues
Climate & Development Forward Plan published today at COP27 Finance Day
In September, the UK and Rwanda’s Climate and Development Ministerial called for transformational shifts in climate & development financing. This is a plan to deliver them from 16 independent facilitators of C&DM. Read the Climate & Development Forward Plan published today at COP27 Finance Day.
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting Finance Day updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
💸 We’re following Finance Day at #COP27
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 9, 2022
Follow E3G’s rolling tracker to keep up with the latest COP announcements, negotiations and our analysis of the #Midterms2022 🇺🇸
Stay tuned, thread below 🧵⤵️https://t.co/3l3YBDiZEI
🇺🇸 The US midterms count began overnight and may reshape the political map of the US. E3G’s DC office explains what this means for climate action here.
👩🏫 Claire Healy, Head of E3G’s Washington DC office said:
“There are the laws of politics and the laws of physics. Regardless of the results of the midterm elections, the underlying trends are clear. The planet is warming, and the global economy is moving towards net zero.”
💨 A plan to allow companies to buy offsets from developing country power sector decarbonisation will be launched today at 12.30 by John Kerry.
🧍♂️ Leo Roberts, Research Manager at E3G, said:
“There’s a clear need for significantly scaled up energy transition finance, but it’s hard to see how voluntary carbon credits fit into this. The focus should be on mobilising grant and concessional finance required to leverage the trillions needed to support developing country climate action. If such an initiative did come into being, the world would need clear assurances that it would actually deliver a net contribution to decarbonisation, and not become a greenwashing initiative, and distraction from what’s really needed.”
1️⃣ The priority is mobilising more real finance – especially relevant on Finance Day at COP27. The US has its hands on levers including reforming the Capital Adequacy Framework for MDBs, which can leverage a trillion in concessional finance. The G20 is a place the US can say that so it can influence COP27. We want to see the US fully behind that.
2️⃣ The history of carbon credits shows that there’s a lot of issues around credibility and integrity of being additional. Initiatives such as ICVCM and VCMI are working to address this but these proposals do not yet have teeth. The UN S-G HLEG is correct to say that only high-integrity credits should be used, but pointing firms in the direction of credit markets risks being a distraction from the real emissions reductions that they must rapidly invest in at home.
3️⃣ These proposals are distinct from the JETPs, the success of which is predicated on sufficient grant and concessional finance being mobilised if they’re to succeed in leveraging the hundreds of billions in private finance needed. Any capital mobilised through carbon markets would need to be additional to this grant and concessional finance.
Tuesday 8th November
COP27 Leaders’ Summit Outcomes
African leaders shone on the final day of the COP27 leaders’ summit.
- Rwanda tasked developed countries to invest in African green power, Botswana doubled their renewable energy target, and a flurry of countries – Ghana, South Africa, Cabo Verde and Suriname – put their weight behind total finance system reform, picking up the baton from Mia Mottley’s call to action.
- Ambition mismatch: African leaders’ ambition was in stark contrast to developed country leaders and the EU.
- Developing country leaders also brought their vision to the negotiations. AOSIS group leader– Gaston Browne, Antigua & Barbuda PM – opened negotiations on loss and damage finance with a powerful call for action. The session focused entirely on developing country views; developed countries have yet to speak in the forum.
Setting the tone for Finance Day tomorrow, Finance system change was featured outside the leaders’ speeches too.
- Vera Songwe and Nick Stern set out a systemic reform program for public and private finance to achieve $2.4trn/year of financial flows for transition by 2030.
- The UN’s HLEG asked non-state actors to come to COP27 with net zero pledges that meet a high bar for credibility to ‘stop the sham’ of greenwashing. Catherine McKenna, Taskforce Leader recommended reform of the MDBs. HLEG is set to create an International Taskforce of financial regulators to enforce climate integrity.
- The UK’s Transition Plan Taskforce set out pre-regulatory recommendations for private sector transition plans, which are consistent with the emerging ISSB Framework and could set an international norm.
Belinda Schäpe on Climate Envoy Xie Zhenhua’s speech:
BREAKING: #China🇨🇳 mentioned #Taiwan & One China Policy for the first time in #climate context as Climate Envoy Xie Zhenhua delivers the national statement at #COP27 instead of President Xi Jinping
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 8, 2022
More on the speech below 👇🧵 pic.twitter.com/VyIbufKhZE
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Fact 2. 🇩🇪Germany has become hugely reliant on gas
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 8, 2022
📈41% of household energy use
📈31% of industry energy demand
It’s now set to phase out new #GasBoilers from 2024, prepare a new efficiency law & expand #renewables
But #industry gas use is yet to be addressed. #gasfacts #COP27 pic.twitter.com/Sh2gOzWu3e
Kate Levick and Catherine Abreu tracking recommendations from UN Secretary General’s High Level Expert Group:
Catherine McKenna launches recommendations from UN SG’s High Level Expert Group on finance. The aim is to prevent delay, obfuscation and greenwashing. #COP27 pic.twitter.com/SULFori7rX
— Kate Levick (@KateLLevick) November 8, 2022
BREAKING: at #COP27, the UN Secretary General’s high-level expert group is releasing a new standard to turn empty net-zero commitments into meaningful climate action. Stick with me for details – it’s very good news 🧵 pic.twitter.com/3FaS5qY812
— Catherine Abreu (@catabreu_) November 8, 2022
E3G’s COP27 team are live-tweeting updates as they happen. Keep up to date with the thread below:
Day 2 of #COP27 World Leaders Summit continues yesterday’s key themes. Finance was 🔥 issue as Macron & Mottley – with support from Gustavo Petro – called for major rewrites to the global financial system.
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 8, 2022
More in our tracker. Follow today’s 🧵below 👇https://t.co/3l3YBDiZEI
Read more about the Disclosure Framework and Implementation Guidance launched by the UK Transition Plan Taskforce:
📢 TODAY at #COP27
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 8, 2022
The UK @TPTaskforce has launched its Disclosure Framework and Implementation Guidance for robust and credible transition planning, supporting companies in meeting #NetZero targets.
Read more ➡️ https://t.co/SAUVzcj7Uv https://t.co/1DUlAW0ufz
World Leaders’ Summit – Day 2
🔁 Day 2 of World Leaders’ Summit will pick up many of the key themes that emerged yesterday from leaders’ speeches.
🔥 Finance was the hottest issue yesterday as Emmanuel Macron and Mia Mottley – with strong support from the likes of Gustavo Petro – called for major rewrites to the global financial system.
🇧🇧 PM Mia Mottley floated ideas including 1️⃣ a summit on the role of oil and gas companies to contribute to loss and damage finance, 2️⃣ new allocation of 500bn in Special Drawing Rights to unlock trillions in private finance for climate, 3️⃣ standardising new hurricane clauses suspending debt when climate impacts hit.
🇧🇧🇫🇷 Mottley and Macron are convening a group of ‘eminent persons’ to report back by Spring 2023 on the next steps, in time for World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings. France is the first developed country to explicitly back the Bridgetown Initiative.
🎟️ Big ticket items today include the much-anticipated recommendations of the High-Level Expert Group on Net Zero launch this afternoon – setting the bar for expectations around the integrity of companies’ net zero commitments. Expect demands for regulation that goes further than just voluntary commitments.
🗣️ Don’t forget the negotiations: * Amid the whirlwind of leaders, it’s easy to forget the quiet but critical business of negotiating. In today’s packed agenda, attention is focused on the first session on the *new loss and damage finance agenda item, at 16:00 GMT+2. This is the chance for developing countries to begin setting out proposals for a new UNFCCC facility to address loss and damage – as well as how this should be set up between now and 2024, the latest date for a decision under the terms of the agenda agreement.
🗳️ US Midterms: The Inflation Reduction Act has locked in many US climate policies, but a Republican Congress could herald the beginning of a Trump return to White House, raising uncertainties about the US’ long-term commitment to the Paris Agreement.
🇺🇸 Kerry takes the mic: Domestic politics isn’t stopping the US from making a splash in Sharm El Sheikh. Tomorrow reportedly sees the much-rumoured (and controversial) launch of a new initiative by John Kerry, seeking to funnel finance for power sector emissions reductions in developing countries with offsets from the private sector in developed countries. There’s no doubt multiple sources of finance are needed to reach net zero, but questions are circling around the risks of offsetting schemes. These are often accused of failing to deliver real, additional emissions reductions, and overlooking companies’ own essential emissions reductions.
⚙️ The US has its hands on multiple levers for mobilising the necessary scale of transition finance. This begs the question of why bigger financial plays aren’t top priority – including MDB reform which could mobilise hundreds of billions, and was backed by some leaders just yesterday.
Monday 7th November
Today’s E3G daily gas fact:
Entering #COP27 amid a global #GasCrisis, countries ask: what is the place for #gas in their economic and energy systems?
— E3G – Third Generation Environmentalism (@e3g) November 6, 2022
Follow E3G’s daily #GasFacts to learn how economies became reliant on gas, where it got them — and what the future may hold.
📅 Starts tomorrow, 7 Nov! 🧵👇
Belinda Schäpe’s thread on highlights from leaders’ opening speeches:
The #COP27 Leaders Summit has officially started!
— Belinda Schäpe (@BelindaSchaepe) November 7, 2022
Major areas @E3G are looking out for
➡️Willingness for a deal on #LossAndDamage
➡️Plans to tackle emission reduction gap
➡️Action on global financial architecture revamp #Bridgetown #JETP
Follow 👇 below thread for live updates
World Leaders’ Summit – Day 1
Yesterday saw a smooth opening of the formal agenda thanks to some late-night negotiations last week. Today and tomorrow, speeches from over 100 leaders present a chance for governments to build on this, injecting political momentum into the talks to ensure an agreed agenda turns into actual, agreed outcomes at the end of the next two weeks.
The major threads
Setting the tone of the talks will mean leaders signalling:
- Willingness to do a deal on loss and damage, keeping in mind the major climate impacts many communities have suffered this year.
- Plans to tackle the yawning gap on emissions reduction that shows we’re way off track from the Paris goals.
- Actioning new agendas for revamping the global financial architecture to make it deliver the billions – and trillions – needed for climate action. The building blocks of this transformation to look out for are Mia Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative, new Just Energy Transition Partnerships (such as the iconic $8.5bn South Africa package launched at COP26), and a review of the practices of the world’s multilateral development banks that could unlock significant new capital (known as the ‘capital adequacy framework review’).
Keep an eye on:
🧍♀️ Mia Mottley (Barbados PM) and co-host French President Emmanuel Macron at today’s leaders round table on innovative finance for climate and development.
🧍 Kenyan President William Ruto, a major advocate of renewable energy in Africa
🧍♂️ Gustavo Petro, leader of Colombia and a rising climate advocate
🧨 What could go wrong? Key risks to political momentum, which could impact the talks more broadly, lie in leaders wielding their misguided attachment to gas as an energy security tool and neglecting to address major issues linked to the climate agenda, like food security.
🐘 Absentees & elephants China and India snubbing the summit limits the global consensus that can emerge from the summit. The US’s absence – unsurprising in light of the imminent midterm elections – is likely to be felt, though Biden is set to land in Sharm on Friday. All eyes will be on the G20 Leaders Summit in Bali next week to pick up the climate mantle.
Sunday 6th November
🌍 COP27 begins! – The opening proceedings focused on the adoption of the agenda for the conference. Negotiators, led by the Egyptian COP Presidency, were up late last night working to find agreement on many proposals for what should be on the agenda.
💰 Loss and damage – Discussion centred on what language would be used on the agenda item on loss and damage finance (the big political issue for the G77 + China group of developing countries). Other proposed agenda items – aligning all financial flows with the Paris Agreement, doubling adaptation finance and limiting warming to 1.5C – didn’t make the formal COP27 agenda, but Egypt will lead further informal consultations.
📢 *UNFCCC jargon klaxon * – Under the finance agenda, parties will discuss “Matters relating to funding arrangements responding to loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including a focus on addressing loss and damage”. This focus on addressing loss and damage creates space for discussion at COP27 beyond mitigation and adaptation actions.
🗓️ No liability or compensation – There’s a footnote and some spoken notes by the President, clarifying that the agenda item does not involve liability or compensation, that it includes the Glasgow Dialogue (a multiyear process criticised by climate vulnerable countries as a ‘talk shop’), and crucially states it will launch “a process with a view to adopting a conclusive decision no later than 2024”.
👩💼 Ines Benomar, Loss and Damage expert at independent climate think tank E3G said: “It’s historic that loss and damage finance is at last on the agenda at COP. The details should be decided by 2024 at the latest, but this should not be used to further delay. It is crucial that parties engage in meaningful discussions at COP27 to ensure the highest ambition outcome for loss and damage financing is achieved, and that all options available both inside and outside the UNFCCC are considered well within the proposed timeline.”
📩 For press enquiries email press@e3g.org, call +447783787863 📞.
📲 For COP27 context and the list of experts available for press enquiries, read our COP27 media advisory.
Available for comment
To request background briefings, commentary or interviews, please contact our media team at press@e3g.org or +44 (0) 7783 787 863.
E3G experts at COP27 for in-person background, quotes and analysis
Both Weeks
Alex Scott, Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, EN
Climate diplomacy
alex.scott@e3g.org | +44 (0)7482 750 760
Tom Evans, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, EN
COP27, Global Stocktake, mitigation ambition and implementation
Tom.evans@e3g.org | +44 (0) 7931 317 327
Alden Meyer, Senior Associate, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, EN
UNFCCC negotiations, mitigation ambition, climate finance and climate diplomacy
Alden.meyer@e3g.org | +1 202 378 8619
Ines Benomar, Researcher, Climate Diplomacy and Risk & Resilience, EN, FR, IT
Loss and Damage and Adaptation Finance, Vulnerable Countries’ diplomacy
Ines.benomar@e3g.org | +32 490 11 33 19
Week 1
Carolina Cecilio, Policy Advisor, Risk & Resilience, EN FR PT
Loss and Damage, adaptation, and risk and resilience
Carolina.cecilio@e3g.org | + 32 497 49 69 68
Kate Levick, Associate Director, Sustainable Finance, EN
International and UK sustainable finance, public and private sector finance, financial initiatives and UK Transition Plan Taskforce
Kate.levick@e3g.org | +44 (0) 7860 861225
Sonia Dunlop, Programme Lead, Public Banks, EN
Public banks, MDBs, international finance flows
sonia.dunlop@e3g.org | +44 7970 795 278
Claire McConnell, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy and Geopolitics, EN
Land use, agriculture, financing adaptation in the Global South
claire.mcconnell@e3g.org | +49 160 944 358 41
Week 2
Juan Pablo Osornio, Programme Lead, Climate Diplomacy & Geopolitics, EN DE SP FR
International rules, standards and regulations for global decarbonisation
juanpablo.osornio@e3g.org | +49 (0) 151 1676-2877
Taylor Dimsdale, Programme Director, Risk & Resilience, EN
Loss and damage, adaptation, and risk and resilience
Taylor.dimsdale@e3g.org | +1 (0) 240-381-4594
Camilla Fenning, Programme Lead, Fossil Fuel Transition, EN
Coal phase-out, energy transition, Southeast Asia and India
Camilla.fenning@e3g.org | +44 (0) 7961 047835
Annisa Sekaringtias, Senior Researcher, Clean Economy, EN ID
Clean Energy Finance Diplomacy, energy access
Annisa.Sekaringtias@e3g.org | +447782476130
E3G experts closely following the proceedings from our offices, also available for background, quotes and analysis
Byford Tsang, Senior Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy, EN MAN
China
byford.tsang@e3g.org | +44 7931 317 327
Belinda Schaepe, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy, EN DE
China
belinda.schaepe@e3g.org | +44 7864 802176
Brick Medak, Head of Berlin Office, Political Economy and Governance, EN DE
German energy transition, German climate and energy policy
brick.medak@e3g.org | +49 (0)151 22 88 9448
Claire Healy, Director Washington DC Office, Geopolitics, Diplomacy and Security, EN
International cooperation, US energy transition and financial diplomacy
claire.healy@e3g.org | + 1 202 420 0628
Leo Roberts, Research Manager, Fossil Fuel Transition, EN
JETPs, coal phase-out, power sector transitions (particularly global south)
Leo.roberts@e3g.org | +44 (0) 7908 664 334
Lisa Fischer, Programme Lead, Clean Economy, EN DE
EU and UK gas and energy diplomacy
lisa.fischer@e3g.org | +44 7710 167754
Larissa Gross, Research Director, Clean Economy, EN
Sustainable cooling, clean heat, agricultural adaptation financing in Africa
larissa.gross@e3g.org | +44 (0) 7712 537874
Maria Pastukhova, Senior Policy Advisor, Clean Economy, EN DE JA RU
International energy diplomacy, geopolitics of the energy transition, methane
maria.pastukhova@e3g.org | +49 (0) 160 901 67735
Ed Matthew, Campaigns Director, Clean Economy, EN
UK politics and policy
ed.matthew@e3g.org | +44 (0) 7827 157906
Heather McKay, Senior Policy Advisor, Sustainable Finance, EN
UK sustainable finance, the UK Net Zero Strategy
heather.mckay@e3g.org | +44 79555 97676
Nick Mabey, co-CEO and co-founder, EN
Climate diplomacy, foreign policy, macroeconomics, COP
nick.mabey@e3g.org | +44 (0)7949 768 771
Jule Könneke, Policy Advisor, Climate Diplomacy, EN DE
German climate diplomacy & geopolitical context for climate action
jule.könneke@e3g.org | +49 (0) 1716810153
Manon Dufour, Head of E3G Brussels Office, EN FR
European climate policy and politics
manon.dufour@e3g.org | +32 (0) 2 5800 737
Léa Pilsner, Policy Advisor, Clean Economy, EN FR DE
European Green Deal diplomacy
lea.pilsner@e3g.org | +32 (0) 2 5800 737