The ongoing COP29 negotiations in Baku and the recently concluded G20 leaders’ summit in Rio have shown limited progress on advancing ambition and action on clean energy transitions. This lack of headway in negotiating rooms reiterates the need for diplomatic and political surround sound to build confidence amongst countries that ambitious NDCs and targets are desirable, feasible, and fundable in the run-up to COP30.
Last year’s landmark COP28 Global Stocktake energy package (GST) highlighted the need to transform the global power sector this decade and phase out fossil fuels by mid-century. Clean power means not just scaling up renewables and storage, but also actively phasing out coal and gas power. Delivering on these goals will require huge financial sums. Emerging and Developing Countries (EMDCs) excluding China, require $1.6tn per year by 2030 for the clean energy transition.
Next year is pivotal for climate action, not just because climate modelling suggests that the window for keeping warming below 1.5°C is rapidly closing, but because of the key diplomatic moments it holds, culminating in COP30 in Belem, Brazil.
All countries, particularly those with the largest historical responsibility for climate change, must urgently demonstrate how they will accelerate their energy transitions and send clear signals of ambition throughout 2025. They must strengthen their multilateral engagement, submit robust NDCs 3.0, and mobilise wider initiatives and alliances driving real-economy action.
Building momentum to transition the global power sector: Out with the fossils…
By COP30, we need clear evidence of a Paris-aligned coal exit or we risk breaching not only 1.5°C but also 2°C thresholds. This means an immediate end to the construction of new coal power.
In support 25 countries (including Australia) plus the European Union, industry and investor groups have called for every country to commit to end new unabated coal in their energy system as they prepare their new national climate plans next year with a view to finding a pathway to end new coal by COP30. This commitment reflects real world progress on accelerating coal phase down: since the Paris Agreement, the global coal pipeline has collapsed by more than two-thirds.
The number of countries with coal power under development has halved since 2015, from 67 to 33, with 95% of planned capacity concentrated in just ten countries. In a ground-breaking commitment President Prabowo announced at the G20 that Indonesia plans to “phase out all fossil-fired power plants in the next 15 years”.
A global coal exit means accelerating the retirement of the global coal power fleet, which comes with a financial cost. The recent Coal Transition Commission (CTC) report addresses this, outlining routes to accelerating coal retirement, including holistic power-sector planning and policy, and project-level solutions like the ADB’s Energy Transition Mechanism.
…and in with the renewables
In parallel with efforts to retire fossil fuel power generation, greater emphasis will be needed to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, particularly in the Global South.
The Global Clean Power Alliance (GCPA) launched by the UK and Brazil at the G20 could help provide political leadership and coordination to drive clean energy transitions and delivery of the COP28 energy package.
The GCPA’s first “mission”, aims to significantly scale-up energy transition finance to address the chronic gap facing many Global South countries. Eyes will now be on the Finance Mission to show how it will set ambitious goals to mobilise and deploy finance, improve the quality of the technical assistance offer, and link to the successful delivery of Country Platforms and JETPs. This includes supporting increased ambition in countries like Indonesia.
The EU also showed ambition, launching a Global Energy Transition Forum (GETF) to focus on energy transition implementation, in cooperation with the UK. As well as a further campaign on “Scaling up Renewables in Africa,” on the margins of G20.
Momentum is gathering around redirecting fossil fuel finance into clean energy. Progress continued under the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) last week with further developments expected from the OECD this week.
Coordination between alliances
Diplomatic alliances and pledges are important for signalling ambition and catalysing action. A proliferation of alliances, however, risks duplicating and fragmenting efforts at a time when diplomatic capacities are already stretched. As details around the GCPA and GETF emerge, leveraging existing and nascent alliances will be key.
From Baku to Belem – maintaining surround sound through 2025
As COP29 enters the endgame, negotiated outcomes must reiterate commitments to the GST energy package. But leaders must also urgently work to build the confidence needed to encourage a raft of stronger, more ambitious NDCs in 2025. These must reflect ambitious goals and pathways which will allow real-world delivery of the GST.
Sustained momentum to drive power sector decarbonisation through strengthened diplomatic engagement will be pivotal. By the time the world gathers in Belem, leaders must show that they have serious, financed and deliverable plans to afford the world a chance to move towards a climate-safe future for all.
